Uba Sani Predicts 70–80% of Kaduna Votes for Tinubu in 2027, Rejects Claims of Northern Backlash

Kaduna State Governor Uba Sani has predicted a major improvement in President Bola Tinubu’s electoral fortunes in Kaduna in the 2027 presidential election, saying the president could receive between 70 and 80 per cent of votes cast in the state.

Sani made the projection during an interview with Channels Television while discussing the emerging political calculations ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The governor’s prediction represents a significant shift from the result recorded by Tinubu in Kaduna during the 2023 presidential election, when the then-All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate finished behind Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Sani: Northern voters are not turning against Tinubu

Sani rejected the growing political narrative that voters in northern Nigeria are becoming increasingly hostile to the Tinubu administration.

According to him, much of the impression of a northern backlash has been driven by political messaging and social media conversations rather than what he described as the realities at the grassroots.

Asked whether there was a growing backlash against Tinubu in the North, Sani responded firmly: “No way. It is not possible.”

He argued that voters would ultimately judge the president on the basis of the administration’s performance and the extent to which government policies and projects affect their everyday lives.

Sani also predicted that Tinubu’s support would increase substantially in Kaduna, saying the president could move from the approximately 29 per cent he secured in the state in 2023 to between 70 and 80 per cent in 2027.

Kaduna’s 2023 result tells a different story

The governor’s forecast is particularly notable because Kaduna was one of the important northern states where Tinubu struggled against Atiku Abubakar in the 2023 presidential contest.

Official results cited in the report show that Atiku received 554,360 votes in Kaduna, while Tinubu polled 399,293.

The 2023 outcome therefore provides an important benchmark for measuring Sani’s new prediction.

For Tinubu to reach the 70–80 per cent range suggested by the governor, the APC would need to achieve a dramatic change in voter preference across the state.

Sani, however, believes the political environment in Kaduna has changed considerably since 2023 and that the alliances and circumstances that influenced the previous election should not automatically be projected onto 2027.

Opposition defections could reshape Kaduna’s political map

One of the factors highlighted by Sani is the movement of politicians from opposition parties into the APC.

He particularly pointed to developments in Southern Kaduna, where political realignments could potentially affect the distribution of votes in the next presidential election.

Political defections do not automatically translate into votes, but they can influence campaign structures, local mobilisation and access to grassroots political networks.

For the APC, strengthening its presence in areas where it previously faced significant opposition could be important if the party hopes to turn Sani’s prediction into an electoral reality.

Federal projects form part of Tinubu’s case, governor says

Sani also pointed to federal government projects in Kaduna as evidence that could strengthen support for Tinubu.

Among the initiatives he referenced were the establishment of a Federal University of Science and Technology in Southern Kaduna and the development of a federal medical centre.

The governor argued that government interventions and infrastructure development could influence how voters assess the Tinubu administration.

However, the political impact of such projects will ultimately depend on how voters perceive their implementation, accessibility and effect on communities.

Kaduna remains strategically important because of its size, population and political influence within the wider northern region.

Sani avoids direct confrontation with El-Rufai

The governor was also asked about the political influence of former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai and his associates amid disagreements within the APC.

Sani avoided turning the discussion into a personality-based confrontation.

He said he respected El-Rufai and other former leaders of the state, including Ahmed Makarfi and Namadi Sambo, while making it clear that his immediate political objective was to strengthen the APC.

Rather than focusing on individual political figures, Sani said his priority was to build the party and communicate its message to voters.

The issue is significant because political alliances within Kaduna and the broader North could become increasingly important as the 2027 election approaches.

Governor warns voters to question campaign promises

Beyond defending Tinubu, Sani also urged Nigerians to scrutinise promises being made by politicians ahead of the next election.

He argued that voters should not simply accept ambitious promises but should ask candidates how they intend to finance and implement them.

Using an example of a politician promising huge financial benefits for students, Sani said voters should demand an explanation of where the money would come from and how such a policy would work.

His comments reflect a broader issue likely to dominate the 2027 campaign: whether voters will prioritise political promises, economic conditions, government projects or candidates’ credibility when deciding how to vote.

Why Sani’s prediction matters

Kaduna is politically significant beyond the boundaries of the state.

Its voting pattern can provide an indication of how effectively presidential candidates are performing across competing political blocs in the North. A substantial shift toward Tinubu would strengthen the APC’s position in a region where the president faced significant competition in 2023.

At the same time, a prediction by a sitting governor should be viewed as a political assessment rather than an electoral forecast with guaranteed results.

The eventual outcome will depend on several factors, including the state of the economy, security conditions, candidate selection, party alliances, voter turnout, grassroots mobilisation and the political configuration that emerges before the election.

2027 campaign battle is already moving to the grassroots

Sani also dismissed the idea that presidential candidates can build winning campaigns primarily through television interviews, Abuja-based political activity or social media.

According to him, elections are won through sustained engagement with voters at the grassroots.

He emphasised the importance of reaching wards and communities across the country, arguing that political campaigns must move beyond online debates and media appearances.

That strategy could become particularly important in Kaduna, where the APC will need to translate political realignment and government projects into actual voter support if Sani’s 70–80 per cent projection is to materialise.

What happens next

With the 2027 presidential election approaching, Kaduna is likely to remain a major battleground in the North.

The APC will have to demonstrate that its political realignment, grassroots organisation and federal projects can produce measurable changes in voter support.

For opposition parties, Sani’s prediction presents a clear political challenge: they will need to demonstrate that the 2023 voting pattern can be maintained despite changes in alliances and party structures.

For voters, the central question may ultimately be less about political predictions and more about whether competing parties can present credible, financially realistic and measurable plans for addressing economic hardship, security, infrastructure and employment.

Sani has made his prediction clear: he expects Tinubu to dramatically outperform his 2023 Kaduna result and believes the president could secure as much as 80 per cent of the state’s votes in 2027.

The election itself, however, will determine whether that forecast becomes reality.