Obanikoro Explains Why Tinubu Lost Lagos in 2023, Says Religious Concerns Influenced Voters

Obanikoro Revisits 2023 Election Outcome in Lagos

Former Minister of State for Defence, Musiliu Obanikoro, has offered his perspective on one of the biggest political surprises of Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election, arguing that concerns surrounding the All Progressives Congress (APC) Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket played a more significant role in President Bola Tinubu’s defeat in Lagos State than the popularity of Labour Party candidate Peter Obi.

Speaking during an interview on the Mic On Podcast hosted by Channels Television journalist Seun Okinbaloye, the former minister said the election result reflected widespread public anxiety over religious representation rather than a direct rejection of Tinubu’s political influence in his home state.

Religious Concerns, Not Opposition Strength, Says Former Minister

According to Obanikoro, many Lagos voters were uneasy about the decision by the APC to field both a Muslim presidential candidate and a Muslim vice-presidential candidate.

He argued that the controversy surrounding the ticket generated fears among sections of the electorate who believed Christians could become politically marginalized under such an administration.

Obanikoro maintained that these concerns had a greater electoral impact in Lagos than the momentum enjoyed by Peter Obi during the election.

He also suggested that subsequent developments under the Tinubu administration have challenged many of those fears, pointing to what he described as religious diversity within the President’s family and appointments.

The Background to the Muslim-Muslim Ticket Debate

The APC’s decision in 2022 to nominate Kashim Shettima, a former governor of Borno State, as Tinubu’s running mate generated extensive national debate.

Supporters of the decision argued that competence, political experience and electoral strategy should outweigh religious considerations.

Critics, however, expressed concern that presenting two Muslim candidates for Nigeria’s highest offices failed to reflect the country’s religious diversity and could send the wrong signal in a nation where power-sharing and inclusiveness remain sensitive political issues.

The issue became one of the defining conversations leading into the February 2023 presidential election.

Lagos Result Remains One of the Election’s Biggest Surprises

Lagos has traditionally been regarded as Tinubu’s political stronghold, making his loss in the state one of the most closely examined outcomes of the 2023 presidential election.

Political analysts have continued to debate the combination of factors that contributed to the result, including:

• The emergence of Peter Obi as a strong third-force candidate.
• Increased youth participation and voter mobilisation.
• Urban dissatisfaction over economic and governance issues.
• Religious concerns surrounding the APC presidential ticket.

Obanikoro’s comments add another perspective to the ongoing debate over which of these factors carried the greatest weight among Lagos voters.

Why the Conversation Still Matters

The discussion remains politically relevant as parties begin positioning themselves ahead of future elections.

Political observers believe lessons from the 2023 contest could influence how parties approach candidate selection, coalition building and religious balancing in subsequent elections.

Questions surrounding inclusion, regional representation and voter perception are expected to remain important considerations for political parties seeking nationwide support.

What Happens Next?

Although President Tinubu ultimately won the presidential election nationally and assumed office on May 29, 2023, discussions over the factors behind individual state results continue to shape Nigeria’s political discourse.

Obanikoro’s latest remarks are likely to generate further debate among political stakeholders, analysts and supporters of the major political parties over the relative influence of religion, party loyalty and voter behaviour during the 2023 election.