2027 Elections: Uncertainty Looms as Tinubu and APC Forge Ahead Without Buhari

The burial of Nigeria’s former President Muhammadu Buhari took place in Daura, Katsina State, marking the end of an era in Nigerian politics. The ceremony, witnessed by national and international dignitaries, signified not just a personal loss for many but also a political vacuum within the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Buhari’s dual legacy as both military Head of State and later a democratically elected president under the APC is now a historical chapter. While tributes continue to pour in, the APC, under President Bola Tinubu, faces the daunting task of navigating the 2027 general elections without Buhari’s significant political influence.

Simultaneously, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is positioning itself as a formidable force through a coalition led by notable figures including Atiku Abubakar, Rotimi Amaechi, Nasir El-Rufai, and Peter Obi. This opposition coalition is determined to dethrone Tinubu’s presidency in 2027.

Historically, Buhari contested five presidential elections between 2003 and 2019, losing thrice before clinching victories in 2015 and 2019. In each contest, he consistently amassed approximately 12 million votes, a testament to his entrenched support base.

Political analysts predict that Buhari’s absence will erode the APC’s dominance, given that he served as the party’s political anchor. Wahab Owokoniran, an APC chieftain and Pro-Chancellor of the Federal University of Transportation in Daura, acknowledged this imminent challenge. However, he expressed confidence in Tinubu’s strategic prowess, citing his nearly four decades of political bridge-building across Nigeria.

During a Channels Television broadcast covering Buhari’s burial, Owokoniran remarked that although the APC might experience some losses, it would also gain new alliances, thereby maintaining its electoral strength. He emphasized that while Buhari’s political shoes are enormous to fill, nature abhors a vacuum, hinting that another influential northern leader could emerge to fill the gap.

Supporting this perspective, Salihu Lukman, a member of the ADC coalition and former APC stalwart, stressed the need for northern politicians to adopt humility and direct engagement with citizens. Speaking on Channels Television’s “Politics Today,” Lukman pointed out that Buhari’s popularity, especially in the north, was pivotal in forming the APC merger and securing electoral victories. He criticized the complacency of politicians who relied solely on Buhari’s endorsements instead of genuine voter engagement.

Public Affairs Analyst Nduka Odo from Peaceland University, Enugu, highlighted the potential downfall of the APC with key figures like Atiku, Amaechi, and El-Rufai now in the ADC. Odo contended that the APC’s internal fractures, exacerbated by past betrayals and unresolved grievances, have weakened the party’s cohesion.

Odo noted that Buhari’s alliance with Tinubu, which brought together CPC, ACN, and factions of the newPDP to form APC, is now a shadow of its former self. The CPC and newPDP contingents have largely migrated to the ADC, leaving Tinubu to rely on his ACN roots.

Odo warned that sustaining the legacy of Buhari’s political followership posthumously is fraught with challenges, notably the economic hardships Buhari’s administration inflicted on millions of Nigerians. The disenchantment among Buharists, worsened by Tinubu’s policies, threatens APC’s future electoral prospects.

Additionally, Odo pointed to the jostling among northern political elites like El-Rufai and Atiku to become the region’s new political torchbearers. Complicating matters further, speculations abound that Vice President Shettima is being marginalized within the presidency, with rumors suggesting Tinubu might replace him ahead of the 2027 elections. The discord was evident during the APC North East convention, where Shettima’s sidelining was fiercely opposed.

Moreover, Odo disputed the notion that Buhari’s consistent 12 million votes were solely his doing, attributing his victories to strategic alliances rather than personal popularity alone.

The controversy deepened when Bayo Onanuga released a video crediting Tinubu and the ACN for Buhari’s presidential success, coinciding with Buhari’s burial day, sparking further debates about APC’s internal dynamics.

In conclusion, the APC’s path to the 2027 elections is riddled with uncertainties. Unless deftly managed, Buhari’s demise could significantly diminish the party’s influence, creating an opening for the ADC coalition to capitalize on.

READ ALSO:

• History of APC in Nigeria
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• APC Political Strategy
• Northern Nigeria Politics
• Tinubu’s 2027 Strategy