Thailand Could Lose Up to 3 Million Tourists if Middle East Conflict Continues

Thailand’s tourism industry is facing a potential downturn as the prolonged conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt global travel patterns and increase operational costs.

According to Natthriya Thaweevong, the permanent secretary at the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, the country could experience a reduction of as many as three million international visitors in 2026 if the conflict extends for a period of six months. This projection was highlighted in a report cited by Bloomberg.

If this scenario unfolds, total foreign arrivals could fall to approximately 28 million visitors. This figure would mirror the numbers recorded in 2023 and fall significantly short of the government’s ambitious target of 35 million tourists for the year.

The economic consequences of such a decline could be substantial. Estimates suggest that Thailand may lose around 150 billion baht (approximately US$4.5 billion), representing nearly 10% of the country’s projected foreign tourism revenue for 2025, as reported by The Business Times.

One of the major contributing factors to this potential decline is the disruption of air travel routes. Due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, several airspaces in the Middle East have been closed or restricted. As a result, airlines operating on key Europe-to-Asia routes have been forced to either reroute flights or cancel them altogether. These changes have led to longer travel times and increased airfare costs, making Thailand a less attractive destination for many international travelers.

In response to the drop in foreign tourist numbers, high-end hotels across Thailand have started offering significant discounts. These promotional strategies are primarily aimed at attracting domestic travelers and maintaining occupancy rates during this uncertain period.

Even under a more favorable outlook, where the conflict is resolved by late March, the tourism sector may still suffer losses. Industry insiders indicate that Thailand could still see a decline of between one and two million international visitors despite an early resolution.

Recent tourism data also reflects a downward trend. Between January 1 and March 22, 2026, Thailand recorded approximately 8.54 million foreign arrivals. This represents a decrease of about 3% compared to the same period in the previous year.

Looking back at 2025, the country welcomed a total of 32.97 million visitors, marking a 7.23% drop compared to 2024. This decline was influenced by several disruptive events, including an earthquake in Myanmar, severe flooding, and border tensions with Cambodia.

To mitigate the impact on the tourism sector, the Thai government is exploring several support measures. Proposed initiatives include offering tax deductions tied to tourism-related spending to encourage domestic travel. Additionally, authorities are considering temporary tax reductions and financial relief programs for hotel operators. There are also discussions around fuel allocation strategies to ensure that tour buses and related transport services can continue operating efficiently, as reported by the Bangkok Post.