For more than a year, Nigeria’s foremost opposition figures have consistently challenged the policies and leadership style of the All Progressives Congress (APC)-led government under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Their criticisms extend beyond economic hardship and inflation, as they also accuse the administration of systematically silencing dissent and steering the country toward a one-party state—something they consider a significant threat to democratic values. In response, opposition leaders pledged to set aside party loyalties and unite in a coalition to dethrone the APC in 2027, presenting themselves as the nation’s last hope to break free from economic hardship and political repression. Formation of the ADC-Led Coalition After months of intensive consultations and political deliberations, the coalition was officially unveiled on July 2, 2025, with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) adopted as the coalition’s official platform for the 2027 general elections. This strategic alliance attracted high-profile political heavyweights from across party lines—including the APC, PDP, LP, and NNPP. Prominent figures like former Vice President and PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar, ex-Anambra Governor and LP flagbearer Peter Obi, NNPP’s Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and ADC’s Ralphs Okey Nwosu championed this new movement. Joining them were influential politicians like former Senate President David Mark, former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, ex-Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, and former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola. Notably, Nwosu and other ADC executives resigned their positions, clearing the path for Mark and Aregbesola to serve as interim national chairman and secretary, respectively. Their mission: Defeat Tinubu in 2027 and “liberate” Nigerians from APC rule. Revisiting 2015: A Rare Political Upset The 2015 general elections were historic. For the first time in Nigerian political history, an opposition party unseated the ruling party. The APC, formed from the merger of multiple opposition parties—ACN, CPC, ANPP, APGA factions, and DPP—successfully fielded retired General Muhammadu Buhari against then-incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan. Will history repeat itself in 2027? Disunity and Strategic Hurdles Facing the Coalition Despite forming the coalition, internal disunity among opposition parties remains a significant stumbling block. Unlike 2015, where political actors fully committed to APC, many present-day opposition members—including state and federal lawmakers—are yet to formalize their move to the coalition. For example, senators like Aminu Tambuwal, Enyinnaya Abaribe, Abdul Ningi, Austin Akobundu, and Ireti Kingibe appear aligned with the ADC but haven’t officially declared their defections. Even Peter Obi has not completely abandoned the Labour Party, prompting PDP stalwarts such as Prof Jerry Gana and Abduljabbar Rufai to encourage him to return to the PDP, believing his candidacy on that platform would resonate well, especially in Northern Nigeria. Obi, through Obidient Movement coordinator Dr. Yunusa Tanko, confirmed he’s open to coalition talks aimed at rescuing the nation. Resistance from PDP and SDP Two weeks before the ADC’s unveiling, the PDP and Social Democratic Party (SDP) criticized the new coalition, reiterating their opposition to any of their members defecting. The PDP vowed to penalize defectors while the SDP expelled El-Rufai for allegedly misusing the party’s identity in dealings with the ADC coalition. Who Will Get the ADC Presidential Ticket? One major unresolved issue is the flagbearer debate. Political insiders speculate a fallout could erupt among Atiku, Obi, Amaechi, and El-Rufai if the ticket does not favor one of them. However, the coalition leaders deny such fears, emphasizing that their focus is national rescue, not personal ambitions. Internal Party Crises Within the Opposition The PDP continues to grapple with the influence of FCT Minister and former Rivers Governor Nyesom Wike—who worked against PDP’s presidential candidate in 2023 and currently supports Tinubu’s second term. Several PDP members have defected to both APC and ADC, weakening the party further. The Labour Party (LP) is plagued by a three-headed leadership crisis: one faction under Julius Abure (recognized on INEC’s site), another led by Nenadi Usman (supported by Peter Obi, NLC, and TUC), and a third, shadowy group allegedly represented by Apapa and Abayomi Arabambi. Although the Supreme Court ruled on LP’s leadership dispute in April 2025, INEC has not issued a conclusive statement and has excluded Abure from post-ruling meetings. The ADC is not without its troubles either. Former deputy chairman Mr. Nafi’u Bala claimed he was now national chairman, alleging hijacking by outsiders. The leadership dismissed his claims and revealed his earlier resignation letter, accusing him of being part of a wider disruption plot. Alleged Harassment and Government Pushback Beyond internal wrangling, opposition parties face pressure from government institutions. LP’s Nenadi Usman-led faction recently decried security harassment of party leaders following a petition by Arabambi alleging a plot to use a protest march to reclaim LP’s secretariat. This, they argued, was a dangerous trend and urged security agencies to investigate those behind such destabilizing petitions. APC Accused of Weakening Democracy Former Sokoto Governor Attahiru Bafarawa recently published an open letter urging Tinubu not to suppress opposition voices. He warned that such actions undermine democratic institutions and reminded the president that he once benefitted from a robust opposition framework. Echoing similar concerns, ADC’s Ralphs Nwosu disclosed he rejected bribes and ministerial offers allegedly from APC agents aimed at dissolving the coalition movement. Nwosu claimed efforts to sabotage the ADC include legal actions by infiltrators allegedly planted by the ruling party. Presidency Refutes Bribery Allegation Presidency spokesperson Daniel Bwala dismissed Nwosu’s claims, stating that no one but the president could allocate ministerial positions, thereby questioning the credibility of Nwosu’s statements. Analyst Commentary: Faulty Strategy May Undermine Coalition Respected political analyst Dr. Olu Fasan described the coalition as strong on paper but weak in execution. According to him, the alliance lacks ideological unity, as its members have no real policy distinctions from the APC—they are merely united in their opposition to Tinubu’s style of leadership. Fasan emphasized that Tinubu governs with excessive centralization and arrogance, citing the naming of multiple national monuments after him within just two years in office. He added that if the coalition is serious about change, they should have established a new party, rather than “renting” the ADC. He further noted that unless
Nasir El-Rufai, the former governor of Kaduna State, has asserted that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu stands no chance of securing re-election in Nigeria’s 2027 presidential polls. Speaking during a media chat shared on X (formerly Twitter), El-Rufai, now a prominent figure in the Social Democratic Party (SDP), stressed that anyone who believes Tinubu can win again is disconnected from the current political climate in Nigeria. According to El-Rufai, public confidence in the All Progressives Congress (APC) and President Tinubu has dwindled significantly, leaving little hope for their success in the next general election. This comes despite persistent assurances by Tinubu’s administration that the country’s economic hardships would soon ease. The Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, recently outlined the administration’s economic reforms on Channels Television, affirming that the government had taken solid steps to stabilize the economy. However, El-Rufai countered this optimism, stating plainly: “Anyone who thinks President Bola Tinubu can get re-elected is not living in Nigeria. There’s no way Tinubu can return to office.” He further stated that even the most disorganized opposition could defeat Tinubu, citing widespread dissatisfaction among Nigerians with the APC’s leadership and governance style. “There is no pathway for him,” El-Rufai remarked, insisting that citizens are too disillusioned for a repeat mandate. Commenting on the wave of defections to the ruling APC, El-Rufai dismissed their relevance, claiming the real focus of the SDP and its coalition is the electorate. “Those decamping are mainly opportunistic politicians seeking contracts, positions, or immunity,” he noted. He also suggested that many defectors are switching allegiance due to fears of investigation by agencies like the EFCC or ICPC, especially if they have a questionable past. El-Rufai emphasized that the SDP-led coalition is strategically focused on connecting with voters and offering a credible alternative to the ruling party in 2027. He added, “Our coalition believes the 2027 contest will be between Nigerians and the APC.” Once a major supporter of President Tinubu in the 2023 elections, El-Rufai is now firmly aligned with the SDP and is actively pushing a political movement to unseat the current administration. Alongside notable political figures like former Rivers State Governor Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi and ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar, El-Rufai is spearheading efforts to ensure that Tinubu is removed from office through the electoral process come 2027.
