As Nigeria inches closer to the second anniversary of the 2023 elections, the political landscape is already heating up with speculations and maneuvers for 2027. Politicians and citizens alike are beginning to shift their focus toward the next presidential race, a testament to the dynamic nature of democracy.
Northern Political Divide Over Tinubu’s Second Term
Recent statements from key Northern politicians and activists reveal a growing opposition to President Bola Tinubu’s potential re-election. However, the North, particularly its politically dominant Muslim bloc, remains deeply divided on the matter. In 2023, this same faction, alongside the South West, played a crucial role in Tinubu’s electoral victory. Now, discontent is brewing due to economic hardship, escalating insecurity, and perceived nepotism under his administration.
Adding fuel to the fire, Tinubu’s ambitious tax reforms, especially the VAT derivation policy favoring revenue-generating states, have sparked tensions with many Northern leaders. The resistance is evident across party lines, with some openly threatening to use the North’s electoral power against Tinubu in 2027.
Bala Mohammed: A Potential Challenger or a Deal Maker?
Among those leading the charge is Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State, the Chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum. He recently warned that the North would show Tinubu their “hue” in the next election. Bala, who contested the PDP presidential primaries in 2022 before securing his second-term governorship ticket, is widely believed to be positioning himself as the North’s main contender against Tinubu.
However, Bala’s political history suggests he is also a shrewd negotiator. As a former ANPP Senator, he played a pivotal role in the Doctrine of Necessity, which allowed Goodluck Jonathan to assume the presidency after Umaru Yar’Adua’s death. Jonathan later rewarded him with the FCT Ministerial position. Bala’s track record of party-switching and backdoor negotiations raises the possibility that he may yet strike a deal with Tinubu before 2027, especially if political survival demands it.
Yerima Shettima: A Noisemaker Without Electoral Influence
In stark contrast to Bala Mohammed, Yerima Shettima, leader of the Coalition of Northern Groups (CNG) and the Arewa Youths Consultative Forum (AYCF), lacks any real political influence but continues to stoke regional sentiments. His history of controversial outbursts, including the infamous 2017 “Igbo quit notice”, has earned him notoriety rather than respect.
Despite sharing a last name with Vice President Kashim Shettima, Yerima has no significant political standing. His inflammatory rhetoric against the Igbo, including a leaked conversation with former Ogun Governor Ibikunle Amosun, has only fueled ethnic divisions rather than contributed to any meaningful national discourse. Unlike leaders who actively seek solutions to the North’s challenges—such as poverty, insecurity, and the almajiri crisis—Yerima thrives on regional antagonism and should not be taken seriously.
The Reality of Power in Nigeria
Contrary to claims that the North can singlehandedly unseat Tinubu, Nigerian democracy necessitates strategic alliances. Even during the military era, power transitions required broad-based support. Today, a Northern candidate must forge coalitions with major voting blocs, such as the South West, South East, or South-South, to pose a real challenge.
Moreover, ousting an incumbent president in Nigeria’s political landscape is an uphill battle. Unless there is a national crisis or a widespread loss of confidence, the sitting president enjoys a significant advantage. Tinubu, despite his governance challenges, is unlikely to relinquish his second-term bid without a fierce fight.
In the second part of this analysis, we will explore further political dynamics and conditions that could influence the 2027 elections.
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