President Donald Trump declared on Monday that the United States’ military campaign involving Iran is expected to conclude shortly, offering reassurance to investors and traders whose confidence has been rattled by the conflict’s profound effects across the Middle East.
The conflict had driven global stock indexes lower and sent crude oil prices sharply upward earlier in the week. Tehran, now under the command of newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, launched a fresh round of missile strikes against neighbouring Gulf states and indicated that the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz could remain shut for the time being.
Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate benchmarks, which had surged past $100 per barrel — a level not seen since the spike following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 — reversed direction and eased by as much as five percent.
“It will be finished soon, and should it restart, they will face even stronger retaliation,” Trump said during a press briefing in Florida, reiterating his earlier remarks to lawmakers that this military operation would be “a limited engagement.”
Trump’s statements came as Iran faced heightened engagement from U.S. and allied forces on the very day the 56‑year‑old Mojtaba Khamenei — the son of the country’s former long‑time leader — assumed the role of supreme leader. Iranian military units simultaneously launched a new assortment of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) strikes targeting Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel.
Another missile was intercepted over Turkish airspace, marking the second such incident in five days. NATO’s air defence systems successfully neutralised the threat before it could reach its intended location.
Diplomats concentrated on efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a sea channel through which nearly one‑fifth of global oil supplies typically pass — after it was blocked to most tankers. The disruption has sent tremors through the world economy.
French President Emmanuel Macron stated that France, alongside its allies, is preparing a “purely defensive” naval initiative to escort vessels once “the most intense phase of fighting has ceased.” Analysts warn that such a mission could expose warships to hostile fire from forces stationed along Iran’s coastline.
Kamal Kharazi, a senior foreign policy adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, told news outlets that Tehran believes mounting economic pressure on its adversaries could ultimately prompt other nations to intervene and force a diplomatic end to the conflict.
Domestic Responses and Military Alignments
Iran confronted intensified strikes from U.S. and Israeli units after the country’s influential Assembly of Experts — its top clerical authority — selected a new supreme leader for the first time in nearly four decades.
State‑controlled media in Tehran broadcast images of massive crowds celebrating Mojtaba Khamenei’s rise to power, with many supporters holding his portrait aloft.
Allied groups of Iran, including the Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, publicly affirmed their loyalty. Russian President Vladimir Putin also pledged his nation’s “firm support” for Tehran’s leadership transition.
Trump told journalists that he was “disappointed” by Khamenei’s appointment but suggested he remained open to a new leadership arrangement emerging within the Islamic Republic, drawing parallels with Venezuela’s recent political transition, which he described as “an effective model to date.”
According to Ali Ansari, a historian at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, the new supreme leader is statistically one of Iran’s most hardline figures, having played a significant role in some of the country’s most forceful crackdowns over the past 15 years.
Economic and Energy Sector Impacts
Oil market participants, policymakers, and central bankers are closely monitoring developments in the Gulf due to the region’s importance as a hub for global energy production and transportation.
Analysts report that around ten commercial vessels operating in or near the Strait of Hormuz have come under attack since Iran blocked the waterway in response to U.S. and Israeli offensive actions.
Global logistics company MSC has announced a suspension of select export shipments originating from the Gulf, delaying cargo offloading as a safety precaution.
After an assault on Bahrain’s Al Ma’ameer oil processing facility resulted in a significant blaze, the state‑owned Bahrain Petroleum Company (Bapco), along with energy firms in Qatar and Kuwait, declared “force majeure,” indicating that unpredictable circumstances may hinder their ability to fulfil contracted export volumes.
In Saudi Arabia, authorities reported thwarting a drone assault targeting an oil field located in the eastern part of the kingdom near the border with the UAE.
Widening Fronts and Civilian Impact
In Bahrain, local law enforcement confirmed that an Iranian‑linked attack struck a residential area in the capital of Manama early Tuesday, killing one civilian and injuring others.
In Israel, explosions echoed through the streets of Tel Aviv after military officials announced they had detected inbound missiles from Iranian positions. At least one person died from shrapnel wounds, according to emergency responders.
Israel stated it launched a counter‑strike on an Iranian missile launcher shortly after Iranian forces initiated a barrage that triggered widespread air‑raid alerts across multiple regions.
The escalating conflict has also intensified along the Lebanese border, where exchanges of artillery and drone fire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah since March 2 have resulted in hundreds of deaths and more than a thousand injuries.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun accused Hezbollah of actions that “threaten the stability of the Lebanese state,” while Hezbollah’s parliamentary leader defended the group’s actions as a necessary “resistance” against what they describe as aggression.
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