Tinubu’s Midterm Review: Assessing the Impact on Nigerians

As President Bola Tinubu approaches the midpoint of his tenure, a critical evaluation of his administration’s performance reveals a nation grappling with unmet expectations. Despite the ambitious promises outlined in the “Renewed Hope” agenda, many Nigerians find themselves facing economic hardships, security challenges, and a sense of disillusionment.

Public Sentiment and Perception

A nationwide survey conducted by a consultancy firm posed two questions to Nigerians across various demographics:

1. Is your life better today than two years ago?
2. Do you expect things to improve in the next two years?

The responses were overwhelmingly negative, with only 3% affirming improvement and a mere 1% expressing optimism for the future. This indicates a pervasive sense of dissatisfaction and eroded trust in political leadership.

Economic Performance

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The “Renewed Hope” document projected a 10% annual GDP growth. However, actual figures tell a different story:

• 2024: 3.6% growth
• 2025 (projected): 3.0% growth

These numbers fall significantly short of the ambitious targets, highlighting a disconnect between projections and reality.

Housing

The administration aimed to double the housing stock annually, reaching six times the 2023 levels by 2028. However, the lack of clear metrics and the demolition of existing structures have resulted in negligible progress.

Employment

The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 4.3% unemployment rate, suggesting near full employment. Yet, this figure is contested, with estimates indicating approximately 47 million Nigerians unemployed. The redefinition of employment metrics has further muddied the waters, casting doubt on the authenticity of official statistics.

Power Supply

Despite some improvements in power generation, distribution remains stagnant. Nigeria’s electricity generation stands at 11TWh, with less than 5TWh distributed, undermining economic growth and development.

Crude Oil Production

The goal to increase crude oil production to 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) by 2027 appears unattainable. As of early 2025, production hovers around 1.4 mbpd, falling short of OPEC quotas and national targets. Challenges such as underinvestment, infrastructure decay, and oil theft persist.

Security Challenges

The administration pledged to enhance national security. However, recent events paint a grim picture:

• In May 2025, attacks by Boko Haram in Borno State resulted in over 57 deaths and 70 missing persons.
• The resurgence of militant activities has prompted concerns from regional governors and the National Assembly, indicating a lack of confidence in federal security strategies.

Beneficiaries of Government Policies

While the majority of Nigerians face economic hardships, certain sectors have benefited:

• Banking and insurance companies
• Oil and gas enterprises
• Telecommunication firms
• Foreign exchange dealers

This disparity raises questions about the inclusivity and fairness of economic reforms.

Recommendations for the Way Forward

1. Reevaluate the “Renewed Hope” Agenda: Given the discrepancies between promises and outcomes, a reassessment of the agenda is necessary to align goals with realistic capabilities.
2. Streamline Government Structure: Reducing the number of ministers and special advisers can lead to more efficient governance and cost savings.
3. Revamp the Economic Team: Incorporating experts with contemporary experience can provide fresh perspectives and innovative solutions to current challenges.

Conclusion

The midterm assessment of President Tinubu’s administration reveals significant gaps between aspirations and achievements. Addressing these issues requires transparent communication, strategic planning, and inclusive policies that prioritize the well-being of all Nigerians.