Tinubu Inherited Nigeria’s Problems From a Leader He Backed – Dr. Sobowale

“Too Much Politics, Not Enough Economic Strategy,” Economist Warns

According to renowned economist and columnist Dr. Dele Sobowale, President Bola Tinubu inherited a severely mismanaged economy from the very administration he played a pivotal role in installing. While Nigerians continue to express frustrations over economic hardships, Dr. Sobowale argues that Tinubu’s government has not only failed to resolve inherited issues but has potentially made them worse.

At Vanguard Newspaper’s Conference Hall, Sobowale clarified that the Tinubu administration began its tenure on shaky economic ground. However, despite this starting point, the current government has yet to effectively address the financial instability or improve conditions for businesses and citizens alike.

Examining the Renewed Hope Agenda

Dr. Sobowale critiqued the administration’s policy document, the “Renewed Hope Agenda,” labeling it unfit for establishing a robust economic program. “He inherited a chaotic system—one he helped to create,” Sobowale explained. After carefully reviewing the document, he described it as filled with unachievable political promises, rather than actionable economic stratehttps://lmsint.com.ng/wike-vows-tax-reforms-in-fct-promises-action-on-ground-rent-arrears/gies.

He further criticized Tinubu’s plan to build upon the policies of the Buhari administration, a strategy Sobowale equates to constructing on a crumbled foundation. “The government leaned too heavily into politics and made economic commitments that were never realistic,” he said. For example, Tinubu promised 2.06 million barrels of crude oil per day by 2025, despite the country averaging only 1.5 mbpd so far—far below target.

Another critical mistake, according to Sobowale, was the inclusion of too many of Tinubu’s former allies from Lagos in federal roles. “Lagos is not Nigeria. Effective governance at a national level demands broader, long-term experience,” he stated.

Deepening Security Crisis

On the topic of national security, Dr. Sobowale recounted personal experiences during his time in northern Nigeria. With firsthand knowledge of the region, he emphasized that widespread security lapses date back decades, citing over 800 illegal border entries as early as the 1990s. He pointed to ongoing ethnic and religious violence in states like Borno, Taraba, and Benue as evidence of a multifaceted crisis that extends beyond insurgencies like Boko Haram and ISWAP.

The local populations in areas like Gboko and Plateau State are now taking justice into their own hands due to diminishing trust in the government’s ability to protect them. Sobowale warned that such developments signify the emergence of uncontrolled ethnic conflicts alongside terrorism.

He criticized decisions such as Borno State Governor Zulum’s unilateral pardon of former Boko Haram members, calling it a grave mistake. “This action has released dangerous individuals back into society and overwhelmed security agencies already struggling with too many threats,” he lamented.

Economic Direction and Budget Concerns

Sobowale, who has been analyzing Nigerian federal budgets since 1988, compared current financial planning to that of a mismanaged company. “Budgets should be promises made to the shareholders—in this case, the citizens,” he said. Referring to Tinubu’s projected N54 trillion budget, he questioned its feasibility based on historical performance and current realities.

He argued that Nigeria’s repeated projection of producing 2 million barrels of oil per day has proven consistently unattainable for over a decade. “Why do we continue to base our economic planning on targets we’ve never achieved?” he questioned.

Sobowale advocated for realistic budgeting, which would likely require reducing government size and expenditures, such as scaling down from 48 ministers to a more sustainable number.

Looking Ahead

Sobowale concluded by stressing that fiscal realism would instill discipline across all sectors. Unrealistic economic projections, he warned, set families and the nation up for financial strain, debt, and potential corruption. “When expectations are based on inflated figures, disappointment becomes inevitable,” he noted. Using a corporate analogy, he emphasized how failing to meet projected revenues in the private sector would lead to leadership changes—an accountability standard sorely missing in public governance.

He doubted whether Nigeria’s GDP goals are realistic and likened them to promising shareholders $600 billion and delivering only $170 billion. “In a corporate boardroom, you’d be removed instantly for such failure,” Sobowale concluded.