A prominent socio-political commentator, Austin Okai, has asserted that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, stand as the biggest threats to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second-term bid in 2027.
Okai, who previously contested for the House of Representatives seat under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for Dekina/Bassa Federal Constituency in 2023, explained that former President Goodluck Jonathan does not pose a significant barrier to Tinubu’s reelection since it is highly unlikely he will contest in the forthcoming polls.
In an extensive conversation with Daily Post Nigeria, Okai analyzed the future of opposition parties, particularly the PDP and the African Democratic Congress (ADC). He emphasized that both parties should shift their focus to the 2031 presidential race, as winning in 2027 might prove extremely challenging. He also drew comparisons between Tinubu’s administration and that of the late Muhammadu Buhari, especially regarding issues of insecurity.
PDP’s Weak Position Going Into 2027
Okai explained that politics in Nigeria is heavily driven by financial power. According to him, when key governors openly endorse the president from another party, such as the APC, funding within the PDP weakens. He pointed to examples like Governor Seyi Makinde and Nyesom Wike, stressing that such endorsements undermine PDP’s strength.
He noted that state governors act as the chief returning officers of their parties, meaning that their alignment with Tinubu could significantly shift PDP’s influence. Okai projected that PDP’s comeback may only be feasible in 2031, once seasoned politicians like Aminu Tambuwal and Sule Lamido consolidate a broader coalition.
ADC’s Internal Crisis and Potential Role
Addressing the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Okai warned that the party must resolve ongoing leadership disputes if it hopes to emerge as a formidable opposition. He referenced the controversial appointment of David Mark as interim National Chairman, despite still being a PDP member at the time, which created legal and technical concerns.
He emphasized that the ADC must conduct a legitimate National Convention, properly supervised by INEC, to establish credible leadership. Okai highlighted that Nigerians, particularly in the North, view ADC as an alternative, but any further mismanagement or legal disputes could derail that trust.
Atiku, Obi, Jonathan, and the 2027 Calculations
On the possible return of Peter Obi to PDP, Okai stated that it would strengthen the party, though internal rifts—such as comments from Babangida Aliyu urging Northerners to allow Tinubu eight years like Buhari—indicate confusion within opposition ranks.
He explained that while Atiku Abubakar remains qualified and determined, Obi currently poses the strongest threat to Tinubu, given his rising acceptance across the North and his consistent grassroots activities. According to Okai, if Jonathan chooses not to contest, Obi becomes the frontrunner from the South.
Ethnic Politics and National Unity
Okai also delved deeply into ethnic politics, warning against divisive narratives that undermine national unity. He reflected on past campaigns against Goodluck Jonathan, including Northern conspiracies that framed him as sympathetic to Boko Haram, which fueled his removal from power.
He admitted personal regret over engaging in tribal politics, stressing that Nigeria’s fragile unity, worsening poverty, rising unemployment, and increasing cost of living should push leaders to prioritize inclusiveness over ethnic division.
PDP’s Future and Opposition Dynamics
According to Okai, the PDP is currently weakened by internal sabotage and compromised leadership, making it less effective as an opposition. He maintained that 2027 is already a lost cause for PDP, and serious rebuilding must start towards 2031.
The ADC, if properly structured, could challenge Tinubu in 2027, but only with credible leadership and a unifying candidate, preferably from the South. He maintained that the opposition cannot defeat APC if fragmented, noting that incumbency already guarantees APC about 40% of the votes.
Tinubu’s Performance on Insecurity Compared to Buhari
On the issue of national security, Okai admitted that Tinubu’s government has shown remarkable improvements compared to Buhari’s era. He cited examples such as the safe travel between Abuja and Kaduna, the arrest of top terrorist leaders like Ansaru’s commander, and ongoing security operations in Kogi State.
However, he warned that leaks within security agencies still allow insurgents like Bello Turji to evade capture. Despite this, he acknowledged that Nigerians are safer under Tinubu than they were under Buhari, provided the current momentum is maintained.
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