Iran–US–Israel War: Nationwide Petrol Price Surge Set to Impact Nigerians

Nigerian petroleum marketers and retail outlet operators have announced that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) is expected to rise beginning Tuesday and Wednesday, March 3rd and 4th, 2026.

This development follows a fresh increase in the gantry price of petrol by Dangote Refinery on Monday.

According to reports monitored by LMSINT MEDIA, the $20 billion facility raised its ex-depot price to N874 per litre. The upward adjustment was attributed to the ongoing Iran–United States–Israel conflict, which has triggered a significant spike in global crude oil prices.

Amid intense volatility in the international crude market, the refinery reviewed its domestic pricing structure upward by no less than N75 per litre.

Further reports indicate that the latest escalation in the Iran–US–Israel crisis intensified after Israeli forces carried out an airstrike that eliminated senior Iranian leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, last Friday night. In retaliation, Iran launched coordinated attacks targeting United States allies across the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia.

On Monday, Iranian strikes reportedly hit oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The situation prompted a temporary suspension of shipping operations through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route.

Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery, the Saudi Aramco installation located in Ras Tanura, was reportedly struck by an Iranian drone, leading to a shutdown of operations. Likewise, an assault on QatarEnergy infrastructure resulted in the suspension of liquefied natural gas production on Monday, a development that may further strain the global gas supply chain.

By Monday’s close, crude benchmarks climbed sharply, with Brent crude trading at $78.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stood at $71.84 per barrel.

In the gas market, Goldman Sachs projected that if tensions across the Middle East persist, LNG prices delivered to Europe and Asia could escalate to as high as $25 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).

Reports monitored by LMSINT MEDIA indicated that retail petrol prices were already ranging between N870 and N899 per litre as of Monday night.

However, a station manager at an MRS outlet backed by Dangote in Abuja disclosed that a revised pump price would take effect by Tuesday.

Responding to the development, the spokesperson of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, alongside the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, stated that one of the ripple effects of the Iran–US–Israel hostilities would be a sharp rise in domestic petrol costs due to escalating crude prices.

Ukadike explained that pump prices in the Federal Capital Territory and nearby areas could climb from the current range of N870–N899 per litre to between N980 and N1,000 per litre.

He noted that fluctuations are inevitable under the prevailing circumstances, emphasizing that the international crude oil benchmark is rising, prompting local refiners to adjust accordingly. He clarified that final pump prices will depend largely on transportation and logistics expenses, projecting a possible range between N980 and N1,000 per litre.

He also urged consumers to avoid panic buying, assuring that Dangote Refinery would maintain supply while the Federal Government continues to provide crude oil in naira for domestic refining. Nonetheless, he warned that maritime crude shipments—particularly through the Gulf region—may face severe disruptions, thereby tightening global supply and exerting additional pressure on prices.

On his part, Billy Gillis-Harry attributed the anticipated increase in pump prices directly to the intensifying conflict in the Middle East. He stressed that as a major crude exporter, Iran’s operational disruptions would inevitably influence international oil benchmarks, which in turn affects pricing decisions by local refineries in Nigeria.

He added that given the interconnected nature of global energy markets, it would not be surprising for Nigerian refineries to respond immediately to the global surge by revising domestic fuel prices upward.

The unfolding geopolitical tension continues to send shockwaves through global energy markets, with Nigerians expected to feel the economic impact through higher fuel costs nationwide.