ADC’s Early Momentum Weakens as Key Opposition Leaders Stall on Defection

The strong momentum that greeted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) after being announced as the coalition platform for Nigeria’s opposition forces is gradually fading.

Reports indicate that the enthusiasm around the ADC’s adoption has been slowed by the hesitation of major opposition figures such as Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, who are yet to formally align with the party.

Opposition Leaders Holding Back

The coalition, which initially attracted a wave of interest, includes prominent politicians like former Anambra governor and 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, former Vice President and two-time PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, and ex-Rivers governor Chibuike Amaechi.

Others in the coalition include former Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai, ex-Senate President David Mark, former Osun governor Rauf Aregbesola, former SGF Babachir Lawal, and former Justice Minister Abubakar Malami. Together, they were expected to inject new energy into the ADC and provide a strong alternative to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

The ADC leadership controversially named David Mark as interim national chairman and Aregbesola as national secretary. However, despite these high-profile moves, sources reveal that the party is struggling to gain real traction because Obi and Atiku are yet to commit fully.

Why the Delay?

Inside the ADC, concerns are mounting. Members of the National Working Committee (NWC) are worried that Obi and Atiku’s indecision is slowing down recruitment and discouraging ordinary Nigerians from joining.

• Atiku Abubakar has quit the PDP but has not declared for another party. His refusal to register with ADC has left many uncertain about his political direction.
• Peter Obi, on the other hand, remains within the Labour Party (LP). He insists that he is only observing ADC’s activities while continuing with LP structures. Analysts suggest that this dual loyalty could be seen as anti-party activity and may weaken his political base.

Political analysts argue that their unclear body language is undermining public confidence in the ADC. The Hon. Nafiu Bala-led faction of the party has openly urged Obi, Atiku, Aregbesola, and others to comply with the constitution by formally resigning from their former parties and registering at their ward levels, as mandated by the Electoral Act 2022.

Failure to do so could expose the coalition to legal challenges that may harm its credibility.

Rumors of Obi’s Return to PDP

Speculation about Obi’s next move gained traction after former Borno governor Ali Modu Sheriff suggested on Channels TV that Obi was considering a return to the PDP ahead of the 2027 presidential elections. Sheriff claimed Obi was preparing to contest for the PDP’s ticket, potentially setting up a clash with Atiku.

“Obi wants to be President. For Atiku, it is President or nothing,” Sheriff noted, hinting that both men may end up on opposite sides if Obi returns to the PDP.

The ADC, however, has dismissed the rumors. Its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, said on Arise TV that Obi “knows better” and would not risk returning to PDP, stressing that his involvement with ADC was genuine.

Strategic Moves Behind the Scenes

Some analysts argue that the reluctance of Obi and Atiku to register formally is part of a calculated political strategy. Chief Eze Chukwuemeka Eze, an APC chieftain, described their delay as “strategic and innovative”.

According to him, both leaders are working discreetly to ensure the ADC structure is strong enough to withstand efforts by APC operatives to destabilize it. He suggested that by September, both men may officially join, once the ADC’s foundation is solid.

Meanwhile, figures such as Amaechi, Aregbesola, and David Mark are already formally registered and mobilizing support for the ADC nationwide.

Obi as the Opposition’s Strongest Force

Chief Peter Ameh, former CUPP National Secretary, emphasized that Obi remains the most significant figure in the coalition. He described Obi as “the biggest political commodity in Nigeria today,” citing his widespread popularity and ability to mobilize millions of votes.

According to Ameh:

• Obi commands over 12 million votes nationwide.
• He is the only politician to have defeated Tinubu in Lagos, despite lacking strong political machinery.
• His appeal cuts across regions, giving him unmatched influence among younger voters.

Ameh argued that Obi is the most viable candidate to challenge Tinubu in 2027 and could spearhead the opposition’s return to power.

Amaechi’s Clearer Path

Among the coalition leaders, Chibuike Amaechi appears to be the most straightforward in his intentions. He has already taken the ADC structure to Rivers State and is actively consolidating his position as a presidential hopeful for 2027.

Conclusion

The ADC’s momentum now hangs on whether Obi and Atiku will eventually commit. Their indecision risks fragmenting the coalition and weakening its chances in 2027. Yet, their eventual decision could also reshape Nigeria’s political future, as the ADC continues to position itself as a viable alternative to the ruling APC.