2027: Has Tinubu Sacrificed Shettima for His Second-Term Agenda?

When Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerged as the APC’s flagbearer in the 2023 presidential election, he might have chuckled privately in August 2022 as his running mate, Kashim Shettima, confidently projected their roles during the NBA Annual General Conference in Lagos.

“I’ve operated in conflict zones for 18 years. I will command our forces, while my principal, a financial strategist who built Lagos into Africa’s third-largest economy, will focus on economic matters,” Shettima proclaimed, surprising attendees.

He emphasized, “By divine will, I will manage national security and personally lead troops throughout the nation.” This, despite being fully aware that Section 130(2) of the 1999 Constitution clearly grants the president sole command of the armed forces.

That misstep revealed Shettima’s misunderstanding of the man he joined in a political partnership. Now, nearly two years in, Vice President Shettima may be reflecting on where it all went wrong. Not only was he never allowed to lead the military, but his authority has gradually eroded. Even access to the president appears to have become a rare privilege.

In April, reports emerged suggesting Shettima was barred from entering the Presidential Villa. Though the Presidency rebutted the claim on April 19, calling it a “deliberate and coordinated fabrication,” many discerning Nigerians were not convinced.

Allegations of severe internal conflict within the Presidency and discord at the highest levels weren’t random rumors but echoes from Aso Rock itself. So, when Tinubu’s 2027 reelection billboards surfaced without Shettima’s image — and the Presidency dismissed any tension — it was interpreted as political manipulation from the playbook of Tinubu himself.

But the façade crumbled. A political blow was dealt directly to Shettima — in his native North-East. At an APC stakeholders’ summit in Gombe, top party officials including Mustapha Salihu (North-East National Vice-Chairman) and Abdullahi Ganduje (APC National Chairman) openly endorsed Tinubu as the sole candidate for 2027 — without including Shettima. The backlash was immediate. Delegates reacted angrily, and both officials had to be escorted out. Even an attempt by Bukar Dalori, Deputy National Chairman (North), to endorse both Tinubu and Shettima failed to calm the audience, and the event ended abruptly.

But Ganduje and Salihu are mere messengers. The real architect of Shettima’s dilemma is his boss, President Tinubu. These emissaries were merely there to relay a message from the ultimate authority in Aso Rock.

Historically, this isn’t unprecedented. In 2003, efforts were made to remove Atiku Abubakar from Olusegun Obasanjo’s re-election ticket. But Atiku had the political capital to resist. Whether Shettima possesses similar political resilience remains to be seen. Even when Atiku remained on the ticket, his relevance in office was severely diminished.

In Tinubu’s case, the power play started early — two years ahead of the 2027 elections. Known for his ruthless style, Tinubu is making Shettima’s humiliation a public spectacle. This may be a strategy to provoke Shettima into a political confrontation he is unprepared for. Should Shettima retaliate, he may be quickly removed by the National Assembly under Senate President Godswill Akpabio. Even if retained for electoral convenience, Shettima’s influence will likely diminish further — possibly worse than what Atiku experienced under Obasanjo.

What’s shocking isn’t Shettima’s current ordeal, but Nigerians expressing surprise at all. Before his May 29, 2023 inauguration, Tinubu’s team sold him as a democratic savior — a man of law and order, an economic reformer with the “Lagos magic.” His inaugural speech echoed these sentiments:

“We shall govern, not rule. We shall listen, not dictate. We seek unity, not division.”

He outlined five guiding principles for his administration, first being: “Nigeria will be impartially governed according to the Constitution and rule of law.” Yet, what followed was more image packaging than genuine intent.

Over two years, Tinubu has shown little resemblance to a democrat. His decisions reveal an autocratic mindset, intolerant of dissent. Shettima miscalculated in assuming power would be shared. He overlooked Tinubu’s track record — the only governor in the Fourth Republic to work with three different deputies in eight years.

Initially, Tinubu was sworn in with Senator Kofoworola Akerele-Bucknor as deputy governor in 1999. By 2002, she was forced out. Femi Pedro, who began Tinubu’s second term in 2003, also fell out and resigned. Tinubu ended that term with Prince Abiodun Ogunleye, who holds the record for Nigeria’s shortest-serving deputy governor — just 13 days.

So while Shettima’s situation is unfortunate, the broader concern is the irrelevance of Nigeria’s vice presidency. Constitutionally, the VP’s primary role is to assist the president, who holds the full spectrum of executive powers and may delegate tasks at will. Despite being part of critical bodies like the National Security Council, Federal Executive Council, National Defence Council, and National Economic Council, the VP’s influence depends solely on presidential discretion.

This means, no matter how powerful the office appears on paper, it remains weak in practice — reduced to what late Dr. Chukwuemeka Ezeife once called “a spare tyre.”

So, has Tinubu politically discarded Shettima ahead of 2027?

Most likely.

This raises a deeper question: If Nigerian leaders refuse to empower their deputies, why continue wasting billions maintaining such ceremonial roles? And why do politicians still scramble for these powerless positions despite the grim outcomes of those who came before?