ECOWAS Faces Uncertainty As Niger, Mali, And Burkina Faso Withdraw

The withdrawal of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is set to take effect on January 29, 2024, following a year of rising political tensions. This decision marks a significant shift in the regional landscape, leaving ECOWAS’s future in doubt.

After a formal notification on January 29, 2024, these three countries, led by military regimes, have made it clear they are determined to leave the bloc, despite ECOWAS’s request to extend the notification period by six months to negotiate a resolution. The departure, which will take effect on Wednesday, will leave the region fragmented, with these nations now forming a new alliance known as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

Accusations Against ECOWAS

The military leaders of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso argue that ECOWAS’s sanctions, deemed “inhuman, illegal, and illegitimate,” were imposed after the military coups that brought them to power. These countries have criticized the West African organization for failing to provide adequate support in their ongoing fight against jihadist violence, and they believe ECOWAS’s alignment with former colonial power France has fueled tensions. Consequently, these nations are now forging partnerships with countries like Russia, Turkey, and Iran, rejecting the influence of France.

A Weakened ECOWAS

The rupture was triggered by the 2023 coup in Niger, after which ECOWAS imposed severe economic sanctions and threatened military intervention to reinstate the ousted president. These sanctions have since been lifted, but the withdrawal of three founding members severely undermines ECOWAS’s capacity to address political crises in the region. According to Gilles Yabi, the founder of West African think tank Wathi, this move will weaken ECOWAS’s ability to maintain stability in the area.

As part of their separation from ECOWAS, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso will introduce a common passport and a unified army of 5,000 soldiers, aiming to combat jihadist insurgencies in the region.

Tensions in the Sub-region

The political landscape in the region is shifting, with countries such as Togo and Ghana increasingly engaged with the AES. Togo, already playing a role as a mediator and providing vital port services to landlocked AES members, has seen its diplomatic influence rise. Togo’s foreign minister has even suggested the possibility of joining the AES, which could further weaken ECOWAS if it loses a maritime-accessing member.

Meanwhile, Ghana, under the leadership of newly elected President John Dramani Mahama, has also begun reaching out to the AES, exploring the possibility of balancing membership in both ECOWAS and AES. This development signals a shift in the region’s diplomatic alliances.

The Future of ECOWAS

The split has sparked debates about the future of ECOWAS. Many are calling for reform, advocating for an ECOWAS focused more strictly on economic cooperation, while others suggest that ECOWAS must evolve into a more people-centric organization, free from the influence of political ideologies. Some former ministers believe that AES could remain a part of a reformed ECOWAS, ensuring that economic ties are preserved while addressing the growing security challenges in the region.

Despite the fracture, it remains crucial to maintain economic relations between AES and ECOWAS countries, as the region continues to grapple with jihadist violence. This violent extremism, which has taken tens of thousands of lives in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, is now spilling over into coastal countries such as Benin and Togo, threatening to destabilize the entire region.