Trump's Policies: How Nigeria’s Trade Balance And Economy Could Be Affected

Donald Trump recently resumed office as the 47th President of the United States, marking his second term in leadership. His administration has introduced groundbreaking policies on immigration, the economy, global health, and more. Prof. Godwin Oyedokun, a renowned economist from Lead City University, Ibadan, spoke in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST about how these changes might influence Nigeria’s economy and health sector.

1. US Oil Production and Its Impact on Nigeria’s Economy

The United States’ decision to ramp up oil production could pose challenges for Nigeria, a country heavily reliant on crude oil for over 80% of its foreign exchange earnings.

Global Oil Prices: Increased US oil supply may cause global oil prices to drop, directly impacting Nigeria’s revenue and intensifying foreign exchange shortages.
Market Competition: US shale oil competes with Nigeria’s light crude, which could lead to reduced demand for Nigeria’s oil exports, worsening its trade balance.

2. Implications for Nigeria’s 2025 Budget

Nigeria’s 2025 budget is built on anticipated oil revenues and price benchmarks. However, if global oil prices fall due to the US’s production increases, Nigeria may face:

Revenue Shortfalls: Insufficient funds for critical infrastructure and social programs.
Increased Debt: Higher borrowing may worsen Nigeria’s already significant debt burden.
Budget Execution Risks: Difficulty meeting financial commitments, including debt servicing.

3. Birthright Citizenship and Its Effect on Nigeria

President Trump’s proposed executive order ending birthright citizenship in the US could affect Nigeria in several ways:

Reduced Birth Tourism: Wealthy Nigerians, especially politicians, might be discouraged from spending national resources on giving birth in the US.
Healthcare Investment: This could push more investments into Nigeria’s health sector, as fewer Nigerians seek medical tourism.
Stricter Immigration: On the flip side, ordinary Nigerians may face tougher immigration policies, potentially disrupting the diaspora community.

4. Realignment of US Foreign Aid

In 2024, the US provided Nigeria with $1 billion in aid, focusing on health, education, and security. However, President Trump’s reevaluation of foreign aid policies might lead to:

Reduced Aid: A decrease in funding for critical programs such as polio eradication, education, and anti-terrorism initiatives.
Shifts in Priorities: Aid might pivot towards security cooperation rather than health and education, leaving gaps in Nigeria’s development programs.

What Can Nigeria Do?
Nigeria must explore alternative funding sources, including partnerships with other nations and organizations, while developing sustainable domestic solutions.

5. US Withdrawal from the WHO: Implications for Nigeria

The US’s exit from the World Health Organization (WHO) could disrupt global health funding, with adverse effects on Nigeria’s health programs.

Program Funding Gaps: Initiatives for malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS may face setbacks due to reduced financial support.
Healthcare Challenges: As Nigeria relies heavily on international assistance, progress in combating diseases and emergencies could slow.

Opportunities for Growth
Nigeria can mitigate these challenges by:

Increasing Healthcare Budget: Allocating more resources to domestic health infrastructure.
Strengthening Global Partnerships: Collaborating with organizations like the African Union and European Union to bridge funding gaps.

6. Looking Ahead: Opportunities Amidst Challenges

Trump’s policies might create hurdles for Nigeria, but they also highlight opportunities for self-reliance and reform. Moving forward, Nigeria should focus on:

Economic Diversification: Reducing dependence on oil by investing in agriculture, technology, and manufacturing.
Infrastructure Development: Enhancing healthcare and education to decrease reliance on foreign aid.
Transparency in Governance: Encouraging accountability to attract investors and reduce dependency on external funding.

Conclusion

The ripple effects of President Trump’s policies on Nigeria’s economy, trade balance, and health sector are significant. However, with proactive measures, Nigeria can turn these challenges into opportunities for long-term growth and sustainability.