Trump’s Energy Policy Puts Nigeria’s 2025 Budget At Risk

As Nigeria works to execute its ambitious N54.9 trillion 2025 budget, economic analysts are raising concerns over the potential impact of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s energy policies. His focus on ramping up fossil fuel production through the “Drill Baby Drill” initiative could lead to an oversupply in global oil markets, driving down crude prices and undermining Nigeria’s projected $75 per barrel benchmark.

The Impact of Trump’s Energy Strategy on Global Oil Prices

Trump’s commitment to boosting domestic oil and gas output is expected to influence global supply significantly. According to Dr. Muda Yusuf, Director/CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), this policy shift may weaken crude oil prices, affecting Nigeria’s revenue projections, inflation rates, and diaspora remittances.

Currently, the U.S. produces around 21.91 million barrels per day—22% of global oil output—making it a key player in market dynamics. With the Trump administration pushing for energy dominance, there is a strong possibility of increased supply, lower oil prices, and subsequent revenue shortfalls for oil-dependent economies like Nigeria.

Crude Oil Price Benchmark of $75 Per Barrel in Jeopardy

If Trump successfully moderates geopolitical tensions—especially the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israeli-Hamas war—global oil production could surge, further depressing prices. Analysts warn that Nigeria’s 2025 budget, which hinges on a $75 per barrel benchmark, may fall short due to these developments.

Furthermore, Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord signals a reduced commitment to renewable energy investments. This could encourage greater fossil fuel production, flooding the market with crude oil and further dampening prices. Additionally, Trump’s trade policies, including aggressive tariffs, could weaken global economic growth and curb demand for oil, putting further pressure on Nigeria’s earnings.

High Inflation, Currency Depreciation, and Trade Disruptions

A prolonged period of low oil prices could strain Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves and weaken the naira. Clifford Egbomeade, an analyst and communications expert, highlights that a drop in oil revenue would force the Nigerian government to borrow more or cut spending, leading to fiscal instability. A weaker naira would also drive up the cost of imports, exacerbating inflation and economic hardship.

Additionally, Trump’s trade protectionism may disrupt global supply chains, further impacting inflation and trade balances. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a key trade framework benefiting African exporters, could also be at risk under Trump’s policies, limiting Nigeria’s access to the U.S. market.

Diaspora Remittances and Foreign Exchange Concerns

With an estimated 500,000 Nigerians living in the U.S., diaspora remittances play a crucial role in Nigeria’s economy. However, Trump’s strict immigration policies could limit employment opportunities for Nigerian expatriates, reducing the volume of remittances sent home. This would negatively impact Nigeria’s foreign exchange inflows, further complicating the country’s economic outlook.

The Path Forward for Nigeria

Experts suggest that Nigeria must diversify its economy to reduce dependence on oil revenues. Expanding local industries, such as agriculture and manufacturing, will help cushion the country against external shocks. Dele Oye, President of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture (NACCIMA), argues that the impact of Trump’s energy policy is being overstated. Similarly, petroleum economist Prof. Wumi Iledare believes the U.S. cannot drastically increase oil production overnight, and that market fundamentals will continue to dictate crude prices.

Conclusion

As Nigeria navigates its 2025 budget, the potential implications of Trump’s energy policies cannot be ignored. The country must prepare for potential revenue shortfalls by investing in economic diversification and reducing dependence on volatile oil markets. With strategic planning, Nigeria can mitigate the risks posed by global energy dynamics and safeguard its financial stability.