Rivers Political Crisis, Governor Fubara Impeachment

Uncovering the Causes Behind the Escalating Tensions

Former Nigerian President Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan once stated, “My political ambition is not worth the blood of any Nigerian.” This sentiment underscored his unwillingness to let political ambition fuel violence. However, his tenure was marked by criticisms, including his claim that he had not exercised even a fraction of his presidential power, raising questions about his leadership.

Similarly, Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara appears to be treading a similar path, opting for restraint amid the ongoing political turbulence in the state. His reluctance to wield executive power has led many to perceive his leadership as weak, a factor contributing to the deepening crisis.

A Leadership Under Fire

Long before his passing, former Petroleum Minister Professor Tam David-West labeled Jonathan as Nigeria’s “weakest President.” A comparable perception is now being formed about Governor Fubara’s leadership. Since October 29, 2023, when impeachment threats first surfaced, many analysts argue that Fubara’s inaction has emboldened his opponents. While he anticipates a political resolution, his adversaries actively maneuver to oust him, especially after the Supreme Court’s unanimous 5-0 ruling against him.

Lack of Strategic Consultations

Sources within government circles reveal that Governor Fubara tends to operate in isolation, disregarding advice from political elders who support his administration. Even high-profile figures such as former Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and General Ibrahim Babangida, as well as the Sultan of Sokoto, remain unconsulted despite their potential influence.

Reports also suggest that Fubara distanced himself from late elder statesman Edwin Clark, despite Clark’s vocal support for his administration. Instead, Fubara surrounds himself with political figures perceived as lightweight, many of whom were previously exiled from Rivers State by former Governor Nyesom Wike.

Governance Challenges and Resistance

Although Fubara is regarded as generous and committed to state development, his reluctance to engage in power struggles has left him vulnerable. A senior Rivers political figure noted, “He is a nice man, but nice men don’t survive in politics without fighting back.” The recent Supreme Court ruling appears to have awakened him to the gravity of the situation, but observers question whether he can recover lost ground.

Furthermore, some elders criticize Fubara for his financial conservatism. One remarked, “Last Christmas, we received nothing from the government despite our loyalty. We support Rivers State, not Fubara personally, but leadership requires diplomacy.”

Peace Negotiations and Power Struggles

A retired northern general reportedly sought to mediate peace in Rivers State but was met with resistance. While some believe this was due to vested interests in the region’s oil wealth, others argue that Fubara needs to broaden his political approach beyond ethnic considerations.

Comrade Franklin Ntekim defends the governor, asserting that his reserved demeanor is a calculated political strategy. However, critics like social commentator Gregory Akpan challenge this, questioning how a strong leader could lose five consolidated Supreme Court cases without mounting an effective defense.

Intensified Legislative Showdown

Following the Supreme Court ruling that reinstated pro-Wike lawmakers, the Rivers State Assembly, led by Speaker Martins Amaewhule, issued two successive ultimatums. The first demanded that Governor Fubara present the 2025 budget within 48 hours, while the second ordered the removal of unapproved commissioners and political appointees within another 48 hours.

Governor Fubara responded through Secretary to the State Government (SSG) Dr. Tammy Danagogo, denying receipt of any official budget request, dismissing the ultimatum as a social media maneuver. This legislative pressure underscores the Assembly’s urgency to force Fubara’s impeachment, setting the stage for further political drama.

Support Base and Potential Survival

Despite mounting opposition, Governor Fubara enjoys strong backing from key regional organizations, including the Pan Niger Delta Elders Forum (PANDEF), Ijaw National Congress (INC), and Ijaw Youth Council (IYC). INC President Professor Benjamin Okaba recently warned of severe consequences should the governor be removed.

As the political battle intensifies, the fate of Governor Fubara remains uncertain. Will he emerge victorious, or will he succumb to mounting legislative and political pressure? The coming days will determine whether he can assert his authority and secure his position.

The leadership of the Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) in the eastern zone has strongly condemned the 48-hour ultimatum issued by the defected Martins Amawhule-led House of Assembly, demanding that Governor Sir Siminialayi Fubara present the 2025 budget. The IYC described the ultimatum as a calculated attempt to create political instability and possibly impeach the governor. According to the group, this move is not only an attack on their leadership but also a direct challenge to the will of the Rivers people, who elected one of their own.

The IYC firmly declared that it will not allow political adversaries to undermine their mandate. The group vowed to protect their rights and ensure that the voices of the Ijaw people remain heard and respected.

Meanwhile, the Ijaw National Congress (INC) recalled past political struggles, highlighting the 2003 assassination of Marshall Harry after he supported Sergeant Awuse’s governorship bid, which was a significant loss for the Ijaw people. By 2007, key Ijaw figures like Soboma George and Farrah Dagogo played vital roles in securing victory for Sir Celestine Omehia, while Prince Igodo, a Kalabari-Ijaw warlord, was killed during Omehia’s swearing-in to prevent security breaches.

The INC further referenced the 2011 political battle when Rotimi Amaechi attempted to nominate Pastor Tonye Cole as a minister but was overridden by Dame Patience Jonathan, who ensured Nyesom Wike got the position instead. The INC lamented that despite the Ijaw people’s consistent political sacrifices, the Ikwerre political elite is now attempting to derail the tenure of the first riverine governor in decades.

The organization vowed to defend Governor Fubara with unwavering determination, stressing that they would not allow this long-awaited opportunity for the Ijaw people to be cut short.

Professor Benjamin Okaba, President of the INC, warned that while the INC has consistently promoted peace in the Niger Delta, leading to increased oil production and national revenue, the same resources are now being used to marginalize the Ijaw people.

Issuing a stern warning to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the INC emphasized that the ongoing political crisis in Rivers State should not be dismissed as routine political maneuvering. Okaba underscored that with over 40 million Ijaw people worldwide, any attempt to sideline them in Nigerian politics would not be tolerated.

While urging Governor Fubara to maintain cooperation with all legally recognized arms of government, the INC made it clear that if his tenure is forcefully terminated by the Amaewhule-led Assembly or any other entity, the organization cannot guarantee the continued peace in the Niger Delta or the stability of the region’s oil production.

Internal Divisions Among Ijaws

Despite the INC and IYC’s firm stance, a division has emerged among the Ijaw people. The Rivers Rescue Movement (RRM) has openly criticized the remarks made by INC President Prof. Benjamin Okaba, Chief Sara Igbe, Alhaji Asari Dokubo, and some IYC leaders regarding the crisis.

Following a deliberation with Ijaw leaders, the RRM expressed deep disappointment over these statements, describing them as reckless, ill-considered, and a potential threat to national security and unity. Addressing the press, the RRM Secretary emphasized that no individual or group has a monopoly on violence. The organization called on Nigerian security agencies to take immediate action against those making inflammatory remarks or engaging in activities that threaten national stability and economic interests.

The RRM also questioned whether those advocating for disruption and economic sabotage consider themselves more Ijaw than the nine Rivers State House of Assembly members of Ijaw descent who have allegedly been mistreated and denied their entitlements by the Fubara administration for over a year, despite no court ruling declaring their seats vacant.

The group emphasized that Nigeria operates under a constitutional democracy governed by the rule of law. They reminded the public that the Supreme Court has ruled on the matter, and Governor Fubara is obligated to comply with the decision. The RRM urged Nigerians to disregard the “empty threats” from those opposing the legal process, affirming that the law remains supreme.

The Odds of Fubara Surviving Impeachment

Impeachment proceedings follow constitutional guidelines, and with 27 lawmakers supporting the move, securing the required votes for impeachment should be relatively straightforward. However, a critical challenge lies in whether the Chief Judge, Justice Simeon Amadi, will set up the mandatory seven-member investigative panel to examine the allegations against the governor.

Justice Amadi is widely regarded as a principled and neutral figure, described as a “decent gentleman.” Many doubt whether he can be influenced or pressured into facilitating the impeachment process.