Price of Locally Produced Rice Expected to Surge by 55% in 2025

The cost of locally grown paddy rice is projected to rise by about 55% during the 2024/2025 season, further intensifying the already high cost of living, according to a new report.

The Afex Wet Season Crop Production 2024 report, obtained by Nairametrics, reveals a consistent upward trend in rice prices. It notes that during the 2023/2024 season, rice prices surged by 78%, with the average price reaching N630,000 per metric ton. This sharp increase was attributed to supply shortages and growing demand, which outstripped available stock.

The report also predicts another price hike of approximately 55% for the upcoming season. This increase is largely driven by the high starting price of around N750,000 per metric ton for the 2024/2025 season, which reflects ongoing supply constraints. By the third quarter of 2025, the price of paddy rice is expected to rise further, reaching between N1,100,000 and N1,300,000 per metric ton.

Several factors are contributing to this price surge, including:

• Low Access to Financing (38%): Farmers are struggling to secure affordable loans, limiting their ability to invest in productivity.
• Low Access to Inputs (31%): A shortage of essential resources like fertilizers and seeds is reducing overall yields.
• Delayed and Insufficient Rainfall (10%): Late rains have disrupted planting schedules and negatively impacted crop growth.
• Excess Rainfall (6%): Flooding has damaged crops and reduced harvests in some regions.
• Insecurity (3%): Farmers in conflict-prone areas are unable to fully utilize their land due to safety concerns.
• Low Access to Farmland (2%): Limited availability of affordable farmland has restricted the expansion of rice cultivation.

These factors combined have pushed up the cost of rice in 2024.

While the federal government has imposed restrictions on rice imports, some Nigerians believe these measures may help bring down food prices. However, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that food inflation in Nigeria has risen to 39.16% year-on-year. In response, the government has waived import duties on certain food items, including wheat, maize, brown rice, and beans, to help control food costs.

Nigeria’s rice production reached around five million metric tonnes in 2023, but this still covers only about 60% of the country’s consumption needs. The shortfall has led to illegal rice imports, further driving up market prices. Despite significant government investments, including the N1.1 trillion Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, rice prices have risen sharply between 2016 and 2023.

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