Mallam Nasir El-Rufai has positioned himself as a key disruptor in the evolving political landscape, with a calculated plan to prevent President Bola Tinubu from securing a second term in 2027. His recent defection from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is already causing ripples within the opposition and power corridors in Abuja.
El-Rufai’s Bold Entry into SDP
Just two days after his switch to the SDP, El-Rufai’s supporters gathered at the party’s national headquarters in Abuja, demanding the removal of Dr. Olu Agunloye as National Secretary. The protesters accused Agunloye of financial misconduct related to an alleged $6 billion fraud involving the Mambilla power project.
The protests compelled Agunloye to petition the Inspector General of Police for protection. However, sources indicate that the push for his removal is being driven by El-Rufai’s allies, who view Agunloye’s past connections with Tinubu—and potentially his ethnic background—as an obstacle to their mission of blocking Tinubu’s second-term bid.
The SDP Conundrum: A Tinubu Plan B?
Beyond Agunloye’s controversy, speculation is mounting that Tinubu may have already secured a foothold in the SDP. Political analysts recall that before the 2022 APC presidential primary, there were unverified reports suggesting that Tinubu considered the SDP as a fallback option if he failed to secure the APC ticket.
This raises concerns that El-Rufai’s new party may not be the opposition’s ultimate vehicle to counter Tinubu in 2027. Instead, it could be a temporary stop in a larger strategic maneuver.
From Ally to Opponent: The Tinubu-El-Rufai Fallout
Despite his instrumental role in rallying northern governors to back Tinubu during the APC primaries, El-Rufai’s relationship with the president has since soured. The turning point came when El-Rufai was reportedly poised to lead the government’s energy sector, only for his appointment to be blocked by the Senate due to unspecified “security concerns.”
A Senate insider later revealed that there was no official security report against El-Rufai. Rather, Senate President Godswill Akpabio merely stated there was an issue flagged by the Department of State Services (DSS), without providing any formal documentation. This unconventional approach reinforced claims that Tinubu’s camp deliberately sidelined El-Rufai.
El-Rufai’s 2027 Agenda: Not Running, But Mobilizing
While El-Rufai has not declared any intention to contest in 2027, his primary objective appears to be mobilizing against Tinubu’s re-election. A close associate of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who also contested in the 2023 election, confirmed that El-Rufai’s focus is on ensuring that Tinubu’s presidency ends in one term.
The Opposition Strategy: A Shifting Alliance?
El-Rufai’s influence in northern political circles is undeniable. He played a crucial role in uniting northern APC governors behind Tinubu in 2022. Now, he is reportedly reaching out to some of those same governors in an effort to sway them away from supporting Tinubu’s re-election.
Interestingly, El-Rufai, who was a vocal critic of Peter Obi during the 2023 elections, appears to be shifting his stance. His son, Bashir El-Rufai, recently tweeted about being misled by the APC regarding Obi’s political qualities—hinting at a potential alignment with the Labour Party leader in the coming years.
SDP: A Divided Opposition Front?
Despite the recent realignments, it remains uncertain whether the SDP will serve as the main opposition platform against Tinubu in 2027. The party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Adewole Adebayo, recently declared his intent to run again in 2027, indicating possible internal divisions within the opposition ranks.
A source close to the opposition movement downplayed the importance of specific party platforms, suggesting that the anti-Tinubu coalition is more focused on forming a winning alliance rather than rallying behind one political party or candidate.
Conclusion: The Political Chessboard for 2027
With El-Rufai actively maneuvering behind the scenes, the race for 2027 is already shaping up to be a high-stakes battle. Whether his strategy will succeed in unseating Tinubu remains uncertain, but his disruptive influence is undeniably setting the stage for an intense political showdown.
For an in-depth analysis of Nigeria’s shifting political landscape, visit Premium Times.
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