Ahead To 2027: Why The Opposition Struggles To Upstage The Ruling Party

Discover why Nigeria’s opposition struggles to challenge the ruling party, exploring factors like greed, money, and weak party structures ahead of the 2027 elections.

The political dynamics in Nigeria have long fascinated observers, often characterized by strategic alliances, shifting loyalties, and calculated moves. One such moment, steeped in intrigue, occurred on May 29, 2003. This was during the cake-cutting ceremony at Aso Rock Presidential Villa, marking the second-term inauguration of then-President Olusegun Obasanjo. Surprisingly, present at this event were key figures from the opposition All Peoples Party (APP), which later became the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and eventually contributed to the formation of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) led by General Muhammadu Buhari.

At the time, the Alliance for Democracy (AD) was the only other opposition party. However, the AD faced significant setbacks, losing its foothold in the South-West region, except for Lagos State, where Governor Bola Tinubu retained power through a mix of determination and strategic alliances. Meanwhile, prominent governors such as Adebayo Adefarati (Ondo State), Lam Adeshina (Oyo State), and others lost their positions, largely due to alleged election manipulation and strategic moves by the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP). This led to the PDP’s dominance, controlling 75% of governorships and 70% of national legislative seats, as reported by the U.S. State Department in 2004.

Undermining the Opposition

From 1999, Obasanjo systematically weakened opposition parties under the guise of forming a Government of National Unity (GNU). Leaders of opposition parties were co-opted into his administration, diluting their influence. For example, APP National Chairman Senator Mahmud Waziri was appointed as a Presidential Adviser, while prominent AD leaders such as Chief Bola Ige and Dupe Adelaja were given ministerial roles.

Such moves gradually eroded the strength of opposition parties, leaving them as mere shadows of their former selves. This decline can be attributed to several factors, which have been codified into ten key points:

1. Greed Among Political Actors

The pursuit of personal gain often overrides ideological commitment. Many politicians abandon their parties to align with the ruling party, driven by the allure of wealth and power.

2. The Overwhelming Role of Money

Politics in Nigeria is deeply intertwined with financial gain. Opposition politicians face challenges in sustaining their positions without access to state resources, leading many to defect to the ruling party.

3. Pressure from Constituents

Constituents often push politicians to join the ruling party to access benefits. This societal expectation reinforces the culture of defection.

4. Fear of Political Irrelevance

Opposition politicians often fear being sidelined in the political arena. To maintain relevance, they adopt strategies such as aligning with the ruling party or avoiding controversial stances.

5. AGIP (Any Government in Power) Mentality

Many politicians prioritize self-interest over party loyalty, frequently switching allegiances to remain aligned with the government in power.

6. Lack of Alternative Careers

For some, politics is their sole source of income and influence. This dependency makes them vulnerable to the temptations of defection.

7. Weak Party Structures

Opposition parties often lack sustainable frameworks, making it difficult to maintain cohesion and effectiveness.

Socio-Economic Challenges

Nigeria’s socio-economic contradictions further stifle the opposition. A neo-patrimonial political system, built on patronage and connections, hinders genuine democratic practices. Additionally, opposition parties often lack clear policy goals, focusing instead on gaining power at any cost. As political scientist Professor Omo Omoruyi noted, democracy thrives on the assurance that elections will be free and fair, losers can make comebacks, and winners won’t retain power indefinitely. Unfortunately, such principles remain elusive in Nigeria.

Conclusion

The challenges facing Nigeria’s opposition are deeply rooted in systemic issues, including greed, financial dependency, and weak institutional structures. To thrive, the opposition must prioritize ideological clarity, strengthen party structures, and resist the lure of short-term gains. Until these changes occur, the ruling party’s dominance is likely to persist.