As Nigeria gears up for the February 20, 2027, presidential election—now just 715 days away—the political landscape is already buzzing with intense strategic moves and alliances. Key aspirants and their supporters are actively engaging in consultations and networking, seeking the right alignments to secure victory.
Northern Support for Tinubu’s 2027 Bid
Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), recently declared that the North is fully behind President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid. He emphasized that the region would regain power in 2031, following the established North-South rotational leadership tradition.
Similarly, Minister of State for Defence and former Zamfara State Governor, Dr. Bello Matawalle, reaffirmed the North’s commitment to Tinubu, stating that the president’s developmental strides across Nigeria deserve continuity until 2031.
These pronouncements, however, have sparked differing opinions among Northern leaders. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Tinubu is actively engaging political figures in the South-East and South-South to strengthen his electoral prospects for 2027.
Tinubu’s 2027 APC Ticket Almost Secured
Barring unforeseen developments, the APC’s presidential ticket for 2027 appears firmly in Tinubu’s grasp. According to Nigeria’s electoral requirements, securing a second term necessitates a majority vote and at least one-quarter of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja.
During the 2023 election, Tinubu faced significant setbacks in Lagos, Osun, and Abuja, where he failed to secure 25% of the votes. This was a key argument raised by opposition parties contesting his victory in court. Despite being a Southern candidate, Tinubu struggled in the South-East and South-South, securing only the South-West. His lowest regional performance was in the South-East, where he obtained just 127,605 votes (5.8%).
However, Tinubu secured major victories in three of Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones: North-West, South-West, and North-Central, with his highest votes coming from the North-West.
2023 Election Results Breakdown
Below is a summary of how Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party), and Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) performed across the six geopolitical zones:
South-West
- Tinubu: 2,542,979 (58.4%)
- Atiku: 941,941 (21.6%)
- Obi: 849,423 (9.5%)
- Kwankwaso: 16,644 (0.38%)
- Total: 4,350,987
South-South
- Obi: 1,210,675 (44.1%)
- Tinubu: 799,957 (29.1%)
- Atiku: 717,908 (26.1%)
- Kwankwaso: 17,167 (0.63%)
- Total: 2,745,707
South-East
- Obi: 1,960,569 (89.6%)
- Tinubu: 127,605 (5.8%)
- Atiku: 91,198 (4.2%)
- Kwankwaso: 8,227 (0.38%)
- Total: 2,187,599
Tinubu’s Outreach to South-East and South-South Leaders
To improve his chances in the South-East and South-South for 2027, Tinubu is reportedly reaching out to key political figures in these regions. Insiders suggest that apart from ongoing infrastructure projects, negotiations are underway to allow opposition governors to retain their seats in exchange for their support in Tinubu’s re-election bid.
Governors such as Professor Charles Soludo (Anambra, APGA), Dr. Peter Mbah (Enugu, PDP), Pastor Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom, PDP), and Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta, PDP) are said to be involved in these discussions. If the strategy succeeds, Tinubu could gain substantial support without the need for political defections, although those wishing to join the APC would be welcomed.
Northern Reactions to Ganduje and Matawalle’s Statements
Ganduje, speaking at a gathering of the Tinubu Media Centre and the Tinubu Northern Youth Forum (TNYF), dismissed speculations about a Northern presidency in 2027. He emphasized that after Tinubu’s eight-year tenure, power would naturally shift back to the North in 2031.
Matawalle also countered criticisms from former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Dr. Babachir Lawal, reiterating that the North remains firmly behind Tinubu’s leadership.
However, not all Northern leaders share this sentiment. Former APC North-West Vice Chairman Salihu Moh. Lukman criticized Ganduje, suggesting that political parties should encourage internal negotiations rather than unilateral declarations. He argued for a more inclusive democratic process where all candidates can contest freely without party-imposed restrictions.
Reevaluating Regional Loyalty in Nigerian Politics
Abdul-Azeez Suleiman of the Northern Elders Forum highlighted the need to prioritize competence over regional loyalty. Reflecting on the eight-year tenure of former President Muhammadu Buhari, Suleiman emphasized that regional affiliation alone does not guarantee effective governance.
The Northern region, which had high expectations of Buhari, faced increased insecurity and economic challenges under his administration. As Nigeria moves toward the 2027 election, Suleiman urged the North to focus on selecting a leader based on capability rather than ethnicity.
Democracy Without a Strong Opposition Is Ineffective — Az Sani
Anthony Sani, the former Secretary General of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), remarked that Ganduje’s statement about the North waiting until 2031 for the presidency stems from the role northern APC governors played in ensuring President Bola Tinubu’s emergence in line with the tradition of power rotation between the North and the South.
Sani noted that since there is no nationwide consensus on identity politics, as reflected in rotational leadership, northern politicians who aspire to contest in 2027 are free to do so—just as Atiku Abubakar and Rabiu Kwankwaso did in 2023. Despite their efforts, Tinubu still secured significant votes from the North.
He emphasized that both Ganduje’s statement and the opposition to it are merely democratic expressions. In his view, a democracy without a credible opposition is meaningless. He further explained that politics is shaped by collective interests, unity, and strategic alliances rather than individual pursuits. Thus, the ongoing debate is a natural consequence of differing group interests. Ultimately, the electorate will determine the outcome at the polls.
Ganduje’s Statement Is Justified — Kwankwaso
Musa Iliyasu Kwankwaso, a prominent APC figure in Kano and Executive Director of Finance at the Hadejia Jama’are River Basin, defended Ganduje’s stance. He argued that the North should indeed wait until 2031 before seeking the presidency again.
According to him, Tinubu’s administration has significantly contributed to northern development. He cited initiatives such as the North-West Commission, championed by Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin and approved by Tinubu, with a budget of over ₦600 billion. Additionally, the approval of ₦150 billion for Kano’s metro rail construction, spearheaded by House of Representatives Appropriations Committee Chairman Abubakar Bichi, is another testament to the administration’s commitment.
Kwankwaso stated that the North is currently benefiting from numerous projects supported by Tinubu’s government, and even more will be accomplished if Tinubu secures re-election in 2027.
Ganduje’s Remarks Are a Political Wake-Up Call for the North — NNPP Chairman
Hashimu Dungurawa, Kano State Chairman of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), asserted that Ganduje’s comments serve as a rallying call for Northerners to reject Tinubu in 2027.
He criticized the Tinubu administration for failing the North, despite the region delivering six million out of the eight million votes that secured his victory. Dungurawa pointed to economic hardship, removal of fuel subsidies, rising taxation, insecurity, poor infrastructure, and a deteriorating health sector as evidence of Tinubu’s shortcomings.
He accused Ganduje of deception, arguing that his remarks were meant to mislead rather than support Tinubu. In his view, Ganduje’s statements are an indirect way of urging the North to reclaim power.
Ganduje’s Statement Is Undemocratic — Prof. Fagge
Political analyst Prof. Kamilu Sani Fagge criticized Ganduje’s remarks, stating that while he has the right to express his views, he cannot deny others their right to contest.
He emphasized that democracy is about allowing the electorate to decide who should lead them, rather than an individual dictating who can or cannot contest. He was not surprised by Ganduje’s comments, given his leadership position within the ruling APC. However, he maintained that even within the APC, every eligible candidate has the right to compete in the primaries, with the ultimate decision left to the Nigerian people.
Ganduje’s Comments May Harm Tinubu Politically — Prof. Sufi
Dr. Kabiru Sufi, another political analyst, warned that such statements could backfire and create unnecessary political tensions.
He noted that the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) had already pushed back against Ganduje’s comments, as some in the North might feel marginalized. Such sentiments, he argued, could motivate certain factions to act in self-preservation, potentially weakening Tinubu’s support.
While acknowledging Ganduje’s longstanding loyalty to Tinubu, Dr. Sufi stressed that as the APC National Chairman, Ganduje is expected to promote his party’s interests. However, his approach might not always yield the intended results.
Upholding Democratic Principles Is Key – Yakassai & Ameh
Elder statesman Alhaji Tanko Yakassai and National Chairman of the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP), Ikenga Ugochinyere Ameh, both emphasized the need for democratic principles to guide political discourse.
Yakassai stated that Ganduje and his allies are within their rights to advocate for Tinubu’s re-election when the time comes. He predicted that Tinubu would seek a second term and would likely succeed due to the financial resources at his disposal.
Ameh, however, acknowledged the argument that the South should be allowed to complete its eight-year tenure, in line with the country’s informal power-sharing arrangement. However, he also stressed that Nigeria operates a multi-party democracy, meaning no single party or candidate is entitled to the presidency.
He highlighted that President Tinubu’s performance will ultimately determine his political future. Factors such as economic policies, insecurity, and governance effectiveness will influence voter sentiment. The growing youth demographic, as seen in the rise of Peter Obi in 2023, signals a shift toward policy-driven voting rather than adherence to zoning arrangements.
Ameh concluded that while regional balance remains important, the presidency should not be seen as an entitlement of the APC or Tinubu. The electoral process should remain open to all qualified candidates, allowing Nigerians to decide their next leader.
Conclusion
As the 2027 presidential election approaches, Tinubu’s efforts to consolidate support in the South-East and South-South could redefine Nigeria’s political landscape. However, internal divisions in the North, coupled with rising calls for merit-based leadership selection, may present challenges. With political alliances shifting rapidly, the coming months will be crucial in determining how the electorate aligns ahead of the polls.
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